What Happens If a Major Earthquake Strikes Tokyo? Areas to Invest In and Avoid
目次
Introduction
In Japan, there is a 70% probability that a major earthquake will strike the Tokyo metropolitan area within the next 30 years. This large-scale earthquake could have a significant impact on central Tokyo and surrounding areas, including Yokohama, Chiba, and Kawasaki, which are also expected to experience strong shaking.
For real estate investors, considering earthquake risks is essential when making investment decisions. Choosing properties built on solid ground with high earthquake resistance is crucial for maintaining asset value.
Economic and Real Estate Impacts of a Major Earthquake in Tokyo
If a major earthquake occurs, the following impacts can be expected:
- Building Collapse and Damage: Older wooden structures in densely built areas are at high risk of severe damage.
- Fires: Fire outbreaks are more likely in densely populated areas, increasing the risk of spreading.
- Infrastructure Damage: Roads, bridges, railways, and communication infrastructure may be severely damaged, leading to long recovery times.
- Real Estate Value Fluctuation: Property values in heavily damaged areas may decline, while those in safer areas may remain stable or even increase.
Given these risks, selecting investment areas carefully is crucial.
Areas in Tokyo That Pose High Risks
Certain areas are more likely to experience severe damage during an earthquake. These areas typically have the following characteristics:
1. Densely Built Wooden Residential Areas
Characteristics:
- Older wooden houses are packed closely together, increasing the risk of fires spreading.
- Narrow roads make rescue and firefighting operations difficult.
Examples of High-Risk Areas:
- Arakawa Ward
- Adachi Ward
- Nakano Ward
- Areas around the Kanjo-7 (Ring Road No. 7)
2. Coastal and Reclaimed Land Areas
Characteristics:
- Many areas are built on reclaimed land with weak soil, increasing the risk of liquefaction.
- Numerous high-rise buildings may face long-term safety concerns.
Examples of High-Risk Areas:
- Koto Ward
- Edogawa Ward
- Parts of Minato Ward
Earthquake-Resistant Investment Areas in Tokyo
Some areas in Tokyo are built on solid ground, have low disaster risk, and are expected to maintain their property values.
1. Chiyoda Ward
Characteristics:
- Located in central Tokyo with strong ground stability.
- A political and economic hub, ensuring steady real estate demand.
2. Bunkyo Ward
Characteristics:
- Home to many educational institutions and built on stable ground.
- Safe neighborhoods with high demand from families.
3. Setagaya Ward
Characteristics:
- A popular residential area with relatively stable ground conditions.
- Green spaces and a high quality of living make it attractive for long-term investment.
How to Choose an Earthquake-Resistant Property
When considering real estate investment, the building’s earthquake resistance is a key factor. Here are important points to check:
- New Earthquake-Resistant Standards: Properties built after 1981 comply with updated building codes and offer better earthquake resistance.
- Seismic Isolation and Damping Structures: Buildings with technology that absorbs or reduces seismic shaking experience less damage.
- Hazard Map Analysis: Check flood and liquefaction risk maps to ensure the property is in a low-risk area.
Nationwide Seismic Risks and Investment Strategies
Beyond Tokyo, major earthquakes can occur across Japan. However, some cities have relatively lower seismic risks, making them attractive for investment:
1. Nagoya (Chikusa Ward, Osu Ward)
Reasons:
- Aichi Prefecture experiences fewer earthquakes compared to other regions.
- Chikusa and Osu Wards are inland with stable ground conditions.
Investment Benefits:
- Strong industrial growth supports stable real estate demand.
2. Kyoto (Kamigyo Ward, Shimogyo Ward)
Reasons:
- The Kyoto Basin has relatively stable ground with a low risk of liquefaction.
- A high number of historical buildings adds cultural and economic value.
Investment Benefits:
- Continuous tourist demand helps maintain property values.
3. Fukuoka (Chuo Ward, Sawara Ward)
Reasons:
- Compared to other regions in Kyushu, Fukuoka has fewer active fault lines.
- The city is experiencing rapid population growth and urban development.
Investment Benefits:
- Increasing population and ongoing city developments drive real estate value.
4. Osaka (Kita Ward, Tennoji Ward)
Reasons:
- Although Osaka may be affected by the Nankai Trough Earthquake, Kita and Tennoji Wards have relatively stable ground.
Investment Benefits:
- As a business center, real estate demand remains high, keeping asset values stable.
Conclusion
While Japan faces earthquake risks nationwide, areas with strong ground conditions, well-developed infrastructure, and economic stability offer safer investment opportunities. Staying informed with the latest research and hazard assessments is key to making sound investment choices.
By carefully selecting the right areas and properties, investors can minimize risk and achieve secure, long-term real estate investments.
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